Case studies.
The signals were there. Without a framework, no one could read them.
Major realignments are supposed to be legible while they are forming. In practice, they are not, or not really. A few sharp analysts catch pieces of one and say so, but it gets covered far less than it deserves, and within a cycle or two the observation is buried under the next thing. And because no one is scoring it against a framework or tracking it over time, even the good calls are a black box: you can trust the analyst or you cannot, but you can never check the math. The shift only becomes obvious in hindsight.
Economic populism colliding with constitutional originalism after the 2008 bailouts.
Mid-term wave, Republican primary disruption, Speaker Boehner ousted.
Populist nationalism captured the conservative coalition; old-line conservatism lost institutional control.
Trump nomination, party realignment, working-class GOP shift.
Identitarian progressivism captured corporate, academic, and media institutions; old liberalism lost ground.
DEI mandates, brand activism, monument removals, school curriculum fights.
Trans rights pushed past the coalition that secured gay marriage; activated a counter-coalition.
State legislation, sports controversies, medical guidelines reversal, electoral effects.
These were misses on the order of failing to notice the Soviet Union was about to collapse, and each one blindsided most of the analysts, pundits, and institutions paid to see it coming. The difference is accountability: the CIA answers for a miss like that; the media and the academy never do. ISA exists so the next one does not catch you off guard.