State of Play.
A live analytical briefing on ideological competition — derived from 68 scored events across 5 macro-ideological traditions.
Current Assessment
Populist Nationalism holds the largest cumulative gain (+42.9 pts), while National Security Conservatism has absorbed the most ground (-1 pts). 49% of events are directly competitive — the rest are consolidation or unilateral moves. The dominant arena is Government/Law (59%), and the weapon of choice is Legal Authority (34%) — coercion is outpacing persuasion.
Who's Gaining Ground
Every event is scored for ideological impact — points transfer between sub-ideologies based on who advances and who retreats. This chart shows the running total. Lines above zero are gaining; lines below are losing. To keep it legible, only the biggest movers are plotted.
All Time
Net Gainers
Net Losers
Last 60 Days
Net movement from events scored in the past two months — who is gaining ground right now.
Recent Gainers
Recent Losers
Where the War Is Being Fought
59% of ideological competition concentrates in a single domain: Government/Law. Despite media emphasis on culture wars, the real front line is institutional — courtrooms, legislatures, and regulatory bodies.
By Domain
Tempo — Events Per Month
Activity has cooled from the prior month.
How Power Is Being Deployed
Actors are reaching for hard power (40%) over soft power (29%). The preferred instrument is Legal Authority — meaning the competition is being decided by institutional authority, not public persuasion.
40%
Hard Power
29%
Soft Power
9%
Hybrid Power
Specific Instruments
Latest Events in the Pipeline
The most recently scored events — each one analyzed for ideology alignment, power deployment, principle collisions, and base pressure.
Palace Redefines King's Role From "Defender of the Faith" to Protector of the Multi-Faith Nation
Mamdani-Backed Socialists Sweep NYC Democratic Primaries
Trump Signs Preliminary U.S.-Iran War-Termination Framework
Public backlash erupts over Henry Nowak bodycam release
Pope Leo XIV issues AI encyclical warning against concentrated technological power
Kevin Warsh sworn in as 17th Federal Reserve chair
Principle Fault Lines
Most events pit constitutional and ideological principles against each other. We flag every principle in play and score whether the move advances it or cuts against it — the fault lines beneath the headline.
Positions Taken on Principle
What's Driving the Moves
Every move is tagged with the motive behind it — conviction, self-preservation, grievance, opportunism. This is what is actually pushing the board, underneath the stated reasons.
Where the Overton Window Is Moving
We track every attempt to shift the boundary of acceptable politics. Most are one-offs, but some directions get pushed again and again — these are the positions being normalized, drawn from 153 tracked pushes.
How High the Stakes Run
Not every move matters equally. Each scored event is rated for impact, from micro skirmishes to very high-stakes shifts. Most of the contest is fought in small increments — the rare high-impact events are where the board really moves.
Who Moves the Board
Some people show up and the contest breaks their way; others appear constantly and move nothing. We track every scored confrontation each actor is part of and measure how far their side advances or retreats.
Clutch is the average points their side moves per appearance. Positive means the contest tends to break their way when they are involved; negative means it tends to break against them.
Efficiency is ground gained per appearance, counting only the wins. It rewards actors who consistently advance their side. Only actors in at least 3 scored confrontations are ranked.
| Actor | Apps | Net | Clutch | Efficiency | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 5 | +27.5 | +5.5 | 5.5 | 100% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 3 | +8 | +2.67 | 2.67 | 33% |
| J.D. Vance | 4 | +7.7 | +1.93 | 1.93 | 100% |
| Donald Trump | 31 | +45 | +1.45 | 1.45 | 89% |
| Pope Leo XIV | 8 | +11 | +1.38 | 1.38 | 86% |
| Todd Blanche | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| John Thune | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Abigail Spanberger | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Nicolás Maduro | 5 | -14 | -2.8 | 0 | 40% |
Ranked by clutch score across scored confrontations.
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